The FoxLair
Republic of Mexico Gold Coin True Rarity Scale
Today, there are many different rarity scales used in numismatics, and I'm sure you may question the validity of messing up the waters with another one? You may ask, "What is a matter with the old rarity scales?"
Originally I tried using several of the old ones many years ago, but none fit into my needs for the rare Mexican Republic gold coins. Most had from five to ten levels of rarity or availability, which seemed okay except in these scales the number of available coins in each level were much too high for Mexican Republic Gold. Also none of the rarity scales I found used the condition or grades of the coins in them as a benchmark.
My dilemma was that most Mexican Republic Gold coins didn't number in the thousands, as did those in the old rarity scales. No, a coin having only 100 known specimens was a common coin, not one that could be considered extremely rare, as was the case in most other rarity scales.
Most U.S. coins can be found in many levels of Mint State, thanks in part to the "third party grading services", that drives today's U.S. coin market. But with many of the early Mexican Republic coins, including both gold series, the average grade found is only Very Fine, or even less. Most Mexican Republic coins series have no true Proof coins until 1904, when we find a few beginning to be made by the Mexico City Mint. I felt it was personally important for me to know what levels of grades were normally found, because I didn't want to buy a Very Fine coin and then wait a short time and see an almost Uncirculated specimen show up in an auction. This happened to me a number of times before I included condition availability to my own personal rarity scale!
My solution to this problem was to create my own personal Mexican Republic Gold Coin Rarity Scale!
Unlike most other numismatic rarity scales, The FoxLair True Rarity Scale uses two parts rather than one. Therefore it requires a short explanation on its usage. There are several important items that must be considered when trying to determine the True Rarity of any and all Mexican Republic Gold Coins today. Here is a short discussion of each.
Some numismatists believe the first and most important item when trying to determine True Rarity is the total number of coins that were originally minted for that DAM. For Mexican Republic gold coins there is a more important question: Where any coins manufactured for that DAM? Today it is impossible to find the exact mintage figures for less than half of the 10 denominations for each mint in each year of gold coin production.
After Mexico gained its independence from Spain and started leasing mints to others, it appears the central government allowed the people or companies with these leases to tell the government how much gold was produced each year in each mint. At first this reporting function was just as it had been in Spanish Colonial times, and told of total gold production (stated in Gold Pesos) rather than individual gold coin production by denomination. It now appears that there were transgressions or out and out fraud with these production figures in some of the leased mints very early, causing these individuals or companies to have their leases revoked early. In my opinion this means that all published individual mint production figures are questionable at best!
As collectors today, it is almost impossible for us to establish the exact production figures for a single denomination from any individual mint in any year until late in the Republican Period! This makes the calculation of True Rarity very difficult or maybe even impossible if we consider production figures only as the starting place for our rarity scale.
Therefore, I personally ignore all of these questionable production figures and use actual numismatic sales figures as the baseline for The FoxLair True Rarity Scale. If one DAM has twenty numismatic sales records while another DAM has very few or even no recorded numismatic sales records the second DAM must be considered much rarer. Thus we establish the first element of The FoxLair True Rarity Scale: The True Rarity of any DAM is based solely from past numismatic sales records. This True Rarity figure is expressed in a whole number from 1 to 11. The number 1 is for the most common coin, while the number 11 is for the rarest, because this DAM is still Unconfirmed by me personally with numismatic sales records or clear photographs.
Now to the second part of The FoxLair True Rarity Scale: A single Alpha Character expresses condition or grade rarity of the individual coins. We are now treading in uncharted waters because of grading questions and how they influence our True Rarity Scale. This part of The FoxLair True Rarity Scale is the hardest to properly establish because we all know grading is a subjective art form, rather than an exact science! This factor is made even harder for the Mexican gold coins because of the individual mints striking characteristics over the many years of each mints production. Again I use eleven different levels for stating the Condition Rarity going from A to J for reported grades, and an X is used for Unconfirmed coins.
At this time I believe it is very important for us to establish the average Top Grade most Mexican Republic gold coins can and will be found by the average collector as Extra Fine (XF).
Yes, I know that in some of the later Decimal Gold Series it is rather easy to find many Uncirculated coins, but once you start looking at the rarer coins in these series, even this is not true.
The majority of Mexican Republic gold was used in commerce and very few, if any, coins were produced as true Proofs during the Republic Period, unlike in the U.S. and other countries. I have found only four or five sales records for Mexican Republic Gold Coin Presentation Sets being sold in the numismatic market since 1900, but no true individual Proofs were apparently minted until 1904! By far the most common grade across the board for most Republican Gold DAMs is Very Fine (VF) until very late in the Decimal Gold Peso series, when we begin to see a few Prooflike coins appear in auctions.
Example 1: The Estado de Mexico Mint 8 Escudos: EoMo 1828 LF (FoxLair Eo-1828-1100)
I had recorded a total of 27 Sales- giving us a gross True Rarity figure of 4. In these 27 sales we saw the following grades:
However, there were three duplicate coins that reached the auction block a total of seven times and four times when individual coins have not been sold! The net FoxLair True Rarity for this DAM is 5-E.
Example 2: The Durango Mint 10 Pesos: Do 1881 P (FoxLair Do-1881-1100)
I recorded a total of 14 Sales- giving us a gross True Rarity figure of 6. In these 14 sales we saw the following grades:
However there were two duplicate coins that reached the auction block a total of four times and two times that individual coins have not been sold! The net FoxLair True Rarity for this DAM is 7-F.
As you can see both example coins are rare to differing degrees, but in this instance the rarer of the two coins will normally be found in higher grades.
The greatest single problem with The FoxLair Project is trying to locate all numismatic sales of Mexican Republic gold coins! As of now we have had very little input or help from outside sources (dealers or collectors) with sales data. Well over 95% of my recorded sales are from public sales only including auctions, fixed price lists and ads in numismatic publications. Very few Private Treaty sales are included in the 20,000+ individual sales recorded at this time. Hopefully in the future some dealers and collectors will see the benefit of this project and supply us with their sales and purchase data, making our sales index and recap reports more complete.
[Sample] Go to the Sample Rarity Scale
[Order Form] Go FoxLair to True Rarity Scale Order Form
[Table of Contents] Return to Mexican FoxLair Table of Contents
[Home Page] Return to Mexican FoxLair Home Page